A Bucks Fan Picks the First Round, Pt. 1

Since I was at work all day, and unable to post anything, here's my friend Jon Meerdink, with some thoughts on the NBA playoffs. Smart dude, knows his sports. Unfortunately, I'm posting this a little bit late, so all his predictions were before today's action. That one's on me. My bad.

-Tom

I'm hoping Jon never got to this point this season.

A Bucks Fan Picks the First Round – Part 1 – Eastern Conference

So I’m a Milwaukee Bucks fan. I’ll give you a few moments to let your laughter/pity subside. Thanks. Anyhow, since the Bucks were eliminated from playoff contention about a year and a half ago, I really don’t have a favorite team in the playoffs this year. That gives me an opportunity to step back and take a look at what’s going on in the rest of the NBA a little bit more than I usually would. I don’t claim to be an NBA expert by any means, but here’s what I see going on in the playoffs this year.

Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers

I have a little bit of an advantage picking all of these matchups since some of the first games are already done, but I don’t think that will change many of my picks. This is one matchup that definitely went unchanged by the result in the first game. On the one side you have the Pacers, a young, inexperienced team that plays together well and is going to try to get by on hustle and heart. On the other side you have…Derrick Rose. And that’s really just about all. The first game showed us that Chicago isn’t really the top to bottom juggernaut that they were made out to be. Evidently they rely on a lot more Derrick Rose and a lot less on everybody else than we thought. Also evident was that relying on Derrick Rose is a real good idea, because when he’s hot, he’s basically unstoppable. Seriously, he was 10-23 in Game 1 and still had 39 points. Not bad, Mr. Rose. Not bad.

Overall, I see this series as having high potential for a sweep. I really don’t think there’s any chance of Indiana winning the series. Even though Chicago didn’t play great in the first game, they still rallied for a win. They’re still more talented than Indiana, and they have just too much firepower for the Pacers to stop. Indiana may have had their best chance in Game 1, but they couldn’t hold it together down the stretch. Too much Derek Rose, not enough perimeter defense, and nobody who can out-annoy Joakim Noah down low. Chicago sweeps, 4-0.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Any guy who’s had a younger sibling knows how this works: you’re older, bigger, stronger, and more skilled, but little bro still thinks he can take you out on the driveway court. Your games always go the same way: little brother sticks around, maybe even leads for a little while. If he’s having a really good day, he might even steal one game from you. But you always wear him down in the end. You’ll use your big brother tricks and strength to put him away when it really matters. It sucks for him, but he just has the disadvantage of being a little brother. Doesn’t mean he’s bad. He was just born second.

The 76ers are the little brother. They’ve got some skills and even some nice pieces. Problem is, Miami has better skills and nicer pieces. Thaddeus Young and Andre Igoudala are gonna be nice players in the league for a long time, but Dwyane Wade and LeBron James are great players right now. Philadelphia might steal one game, but in the end Miami takes the series 4-1.

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks

So the Celtics are old. There’s no two ways about it. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett are far closer to the end of their careers than to the beginning. For all we know, this might be their last playoff series ever.

But I don’t think so, and here’s why. Pierce, Allen, and Garnett might be old, but New York doesn’t have anybody who can guard them. And I haven’t even mentioned Rajon Rondo yet. Tell me honestly who on the Knicks has a prayer of stopping the alien child?

I won’t disagree that Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire are great offensive players. Let me repeat: great offensive players. They might even take one or two games in this series if they can get hot. But they won’t be able to slow Rajon Rondo and the Big Three enough to make it to round two. Boston strolls to round two courtesy of a 4-1 win over New York.

Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks

Ah yes, the battle for the southeast. The Magic have the best big man in the league in Dwight Howard, as evidenced by his 46 point, 19 rebound masterpiece in Game 1. One problem: Atlanta won Game 1. Dwight forgot to remind the rest of the Magic the playoffs were starting. Seems like Atlanta had them outgunned at just about every turn. Even Kirk Hinrich (remember him?) had things rolling.

The thing is, the roles could easily be reversed in Game 2. Atlanta has always been a bit of a mystery to me in that they can never put everything together and have a complete series. Even the Bucks took them to seven games last year without Andrew Bogut! (Yes! Bucks reference! They’re not totally irrelevant!) For that reason, I think this series will go to at least six games. It’s all going to depend on who ends up showing up for the Magic. If they can get someone other than Dwight Howard to have anything approaching an effective game, they’ll probably win. I think Orlando wins, but just barely. 4-3.